October 10, 2009 by Claro Noda | 3 Comments
Lifecycle Quiz
In Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey A. Moore discuss the Technology Adoption Lifecycle. He argues the curve highlights a chasm that exists between visionaries who are early adopters of technology and pragmatists who wait for proven technologies and products. For technologies to cross the chasm there are several requirements: e.g. products with defined specs, system deployment guidelines, etc
According to this reasoning, where on the curve do you expect WSN technology to be? In other words, in which phase of its lifecycle?
I’d say that most protocols are still in Early Adopters. Zigbee is trying to emerge from this phase and I think IPSO/6LoWPAN is not far behind. The problem with getting out of that phase is that a solid application needs to exist that appeals to a large market.
When we talk about WSN, are we talking about the networking protocols only? If we consider other technologies like energy harvesting that are closely related to WSN, that kind of things are still in the group of Innovators. I think that networking protocols itself are both Innovators and Early Adopters, before The Chasm.
I agree with Akiba’s comment in the sense that at least one big, mainstream application will move WSN to Early Majority… maybe smart metering is a good example application.
I agree with both Akiba and Johann.
I believe that WSNs are in the innovator and early adopter phases in most industries. I think that WSNs are most likely to leave the chasm in green tech markets (i.e. smart grid and energy management). For example, companies in the smart grid market have a large potential market but have only installed their products in a few cities in the world.
In the factory-automation market, WSNs, especially the WirelessHart and upcoming SP100 solutions, have momentum but are still in the chasm in my opinion. I wonder which protocol will “win” the race.
I also believe that users still have difficulty to position WSNs relative to low-power WiFi and upcoming WiMax (and possibly low-cost cellular) solutions.
Note that WSNs are still complicated to use (battery replacement, installation complexity).